While Victoria’s daily COVID-19 case numbers are dropping, there is still one important figure that needs to drop “substantially” before restrictions can be eased.
Surgeon, clinical epidemiologist and head of the University of Melbourne’s School of Population and Global Health, Professor Nancy Baxter, said the high rate of mystery cases is still a major cause of concern.
“When you look at our seven day average we are definitely trending down and the R0, the reproduction rate, the number of people who have Covid-19 and the people they give it too has decreased but we still have these mystery cases of people who have contracted Covid-19 and we have no idea where they contracted it from,” Professor Baxter told the ABC.
Picture: Asanka Ratnayke/Getty Images
“That is a number that remains concerning and that need to come down substantially before I think they can really relax the restrictions.”
In terms of total daily case numbers, Prof Baxter said there wasn’t a specific number the state needed to drop to in order for restrictions to be lifted.
“I think what is important to know is it’s not just the number, it is where those people have contracted COVID-19 from,” she said.
“For example, we know if people isolate or quarantine themselves at home, there is a fairly high likelihood that they can give it to people in their home.
“There’s not a lot of risk that those people are going to give it to others because none of those people are going to be moving much in the community. So the numbers may still be high because of that, but it doesn’t mean that there is a risk to the community, so I think the numbers have to be balanced the risk that the people getting COVID-19 are to the community.”
Premier Daniel Andrews made similar comments today about how the level of mystery cases will play a big role in when restrictions will ease.
Its not just about the raw number of new cases. Its also some of the circumstances that sit behind those,” he said during Thursday’s press conference.
If you had very low numbers of community transmission, or mystery cases, or you had 20 cases, but they were all linked to known and contained outbreaks – that is in some respects a lower number than it might seem.
I know its very frustrating and wed all love to know a clear blueprint on moving from one phase to another.
But sadly we cant give people a definitive timeline.
